| Thread Tools | Rate Thread |
 06-20-2024, 12:58 PM | #16 |
ScottJ Registered User Join Date: Jul 2022 Posts: 354 | Quote: Originally Posted by Saratoga Thxs .... interesting as I newer bet a whole field in my life Identifying bad favorites (which as a side note, I think is one of Andy Serling's biggest strengths as a handicapper and Maggie Wolfendale's as a spotter) is what helps you to identify VALUE (payoff odds that are greater than they should be based on your estimated chance of the horse winning). Betting the whole field "except one or two" to beat the takeout is at first a handicapping exercise and second, a mathematical equation. It takes more capital investment, exposes your bankroll to greater risk (statistical term : variance) that you might want, and does not really leverage the value on specific horses that you perceive to exist. I went though the exercise only to point out the mathematics which, ironically the race you chose, illustrated the model's fulcrum with a 5/2 favorite. |
 |
| 06-20-2024, 01:09 PM | #17 |
Saratoga Registered User Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 819 | Gulfstream Park is a track that my "Bad Favorites" are pronunced in.. Race 1 the 4 was a bad favorite...so I capped the 3 as a play... Came in 4-3 but the 4 came in on the 3 and was DQ'd I think its the 1st time I benefitted from a DQ in my life.... |
 |
| 06-20-2024, 02:38 PM | #18 |
bisket Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,616 | Quote: Originally Posted by Saratoga Gulfstream Park is a track that my "Bad Favorites" are pronunced in.. Race 1 the 4 was a bad favorite...so I capped the 3 as a play... Came in 4-3 but the 4 came in on the 3 and was DQ'd I think its the 1st time I benefitted from a DQ in my life.... I dont play as much as I did awhile ago. I loved Gulfstream in December and January because barns from multiple states would converge for the winter meet. It scrambled the effectiveness of most proven handicapping methods for a month or so. I could always find some good value. |
|
| Yesterday, 10:15 AM | #19 |
classhandicapper Registered User Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 20,803 | Most bad favorites still have a very good chance of winning despite their flaws. What you will typically find is a 2-1 shot that should be 5-1 or a 1-1 that should be 2-1 and similar horses that are simply overbet. __________________ |
|
| Yesterday, 11:56 AM | #20 |
Dave Schwartz Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 17,066 | Quote: Originally Posted by classhandicapper Most bad favorites still have a very good chance of winning despite their flaws. What you will typically find is a 2-1 shot that should be 5-1 or a 1-1 that should be 2-1 and similar horses that are simply overbet. Don't know if this will help, but, what I look for is a horse that should be 6/5 (or less), who is a bad bet based upon value. My belief is that there must be a value component to find something that can be leveraged. __________________ email address: |
|
| Yesterday, 05:37 PM | #21 |
Saratoga Registered User Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 819 | Quote: Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz Don't know if this will help, but, what I look for is a horse that should be 6/5 (or less), who is a bad bet based upon value. My belief is that there must be a value component to find something that can be leveraged. The problem is Dave that odds is a variable that is not known... Trying to find a way without knowing the odds |
|
| Yesterday, 05:49 PM | #22 |
Dave Schwartz Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 17,066 | Quote: Originally Posted by Saratoga The problem is Dave that odds is a variable that is not known... Trying to find a way without knowing the odds Absolutely right. You must develop a way to estimate the odds in a more robust way than with just morning line. Then you capture said horses and study them. __________________ email address: |
|
| Yesterday, 05:57 PM | #23 |
thaskalos Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 28,774 | Quote: Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz Don't know if this will help, but, what I look for is a horse that should be 6/5 (or less), who is a bad bet based upon value. My belief is that there must be a value component to find something that can be leveraged. When you categorize a 6/5 horse as a bad bet based upon value how often would you expect this horse to win? __________________ |
|
| Yesterday, 07:06 PM | #24 |
Publius Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 81 | Quote: Originally Posted by ScottJ Identifying bad favorites (which as a side note, I think is one of Andy Serling's biggest strengths as a handicapper and Maggie Wolfendale's as a spotter) is what helps you to identify VALUE (payoff odds that are greater than they should be based on your estimated chance of the horse winning). BINGO. I always look for false favorites. Sometimes a few are on a card, sometimes the favorite is legit. All my major winning wagers have involved false chalk not winning. They can hit the board and still provide handsome results with in race wagers. |
|
| Yesterday, 07:33 PM | #25 |
ScottJ Registered User Join Date: Jul 2022 Posts: 354 | Quote: Originally Posted by thaskalos When you categorize a 6/5 horse as a bad bet based upon value how often would you expect this horse to win? If the odds are a/b, the expected win rate of the same horse would be b/(a+b) ignoring takeout rates. Hence for 6/5, the win rate would be 45.5%. |
|
| Yesterday, 08:29 PM | #26 |
thaskalos Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 28,774 | Quote: Originally Posted by ScottJ If the odds are a/b, the expected win rate of the same horse would be b/(a+b) ignoring takeout rates. Hence for 6/5, the win rate would be 45.5%. You misunderstood my question to Dave. The 6/5 favorite figures to win at a 45.5% clip if it's a LEGITIMATE 6/5 favorite. I was asking what the projected winning percentage of this 6/5 horse would be if Dave considered it a "bad bet based upon value". __________________ |
|
| Yesterday, 08:56 PM | #27 |
Dave Schwartz Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 17,066 | Quote: Originally Posted by thaskalos When you categorize a 6/5 horse as a “bad bet based upon value”…how often would you expect this horse to win? Depends upon the final odds - which do not concern me. For over 9 years my BALOs returned $0.89 for every $2 wagered. The came up in about 32% of all races I handicapped. Then about 3 years ago, that changed. Happened overnight. The best I could do was a $1.30-ish $net. Still -35% guarantees more than break even. [edit] Note: There is no minimum or maximum range on the odds. The BALO candidates must be close enough to the favorite to be considered "highly similar." Of course there is a rigid definition, but it would take a long explanation. It is explained completely in the videos. __________________ email address: Last edited by Dave Schwartz; Yesterday at 09:00 PM. |
|
| Today, 10:15 AM | #28 |
bisket Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,616 | Quote: Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz Absolutely right. You must develop a way to estimate the odds in a more robust way than with just morning line. Then you capture said horses and study them. In the big races it's impossible for me to not see the morning line. Most other races I won't see odds until the race opens. Occasionally, I'm pleasantly surprised at the odds I'm getting on a horse I like. Time to plunge... |
|
| Today, 10:29 AM | #29 |
bisket Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,616 | Quote: Originally Posted by Saratoga This is a poor mans attempt at finding a bad favorite... Using a simple Bris PDf with comments from Twinspires Some rules: Choose your size of field , 6 or more....the bigger the field , the better Morning Line favorite should be 5/2 or less... My research pointed to 2 factors that will heighten the favorites chances That is Bris Prime and some class factor Rule is: If any of those are NOT Rank #1.... I can throw some stats if anyone is interested... Below is Race 4 at CD ...the 6 was the 3/5 favorite.... But here's the kicker.... You may have found a bad favorite ....but how to you get the Winner??? I would toss the average last 3 race class rating as an analysis because the 6 is coming back from a long layoff. The only race that matters in any analysis of todays race is his last out 20k claimer. He was a high dollar yearling who came off a long layoff to race in 20k claimer. He's damaged goods. He finished 2nd giving up the lead in the stretch and now he's in a 30k claimer. If he's the favorite, just from that information, that would be a race I'm interested in playing. |
|
| Today, 10:44 AM | #30 |
Saratoga Registered User Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 819 | Quote: Originally Posted by bisket I would toss the average last 3 race class rating as an analysis because the 6 is coming back from a long layoff. The only race that matters in any analysis of todays race is his last out 20k claimer. He was a high dollar yearling who came off a long layoff to race in 20k claimer. He's damaged goods. He finished 2nd giving up the lead in the stretch and now he's in a 30k claimer. If he's the favorite, just from that information, that would be a race I'm interested in playing. People like you and me would go that extra mile and handicap the horse and then the race... With this approach , its identifying the race first...fast |
|
«Previous Thread|Next Thread»
|
| » Advertisem*nt |
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:58 PM.
