The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold. Gold investing is widely regarded as a safe haven during extreme macroeconomic downturns in periods of war, hyperinflation, or major recessions.

But do such allocations to gold really provide the expected protection in practice? And even if so, are there any better ways to mitigate risks? To answer these questions, we revisited the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios and focused on its marginal downside risk reduction benefits relative to bonds and equities.

Our analysis, featured in a new research paper, focuses on annual real returns starting in 1975, when gold became truly tradeable. We took the perspective of a US investor who could strategically invest in equities, bonds, and gold and would care about a wide range of downside risk measures, including downside volatility, loss probability and expected loss.

The key findings of our empirical study are that a modest gold allocation in a traditional mix of equities and bonds reduces the risk of capital losses by around 10% across a wide range of equity-bond allocations. Still, this also reduces the return, leading to a small increase in the return/risk ratio as shown in Figure 1 summarizing the main findings of this study.

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Importantly, however, our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style in the equity investment and letting this defensive equity allocation replace part of the bond allocation. The portfolio with the lowest downside volatility on a one-year horizon consists of 45% bonds, 45% low-volatility stocks and 10% gold.

Our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style

As a result, this defensive mix has significantly lower downside risk than a traditional equities/bonds portfolio, with higher returns leading to a large increase in the Sortino ratio. This defensive strategy therefore proves to be an effective way for investors to adhere to Buffet’s golden rule, while still delivering long-term capital growth.

Moreover, additional simulations and robustness checks show that these key findings hold not just for the one-year returns initially considered, but also for a wide range of investment horizons, ranging from one month up to 36 months. While these results are robust when gold futures are used instead of a direct gold investment, adding gold mining stocks is less effective in reducing the downside risk of a low-volatility equity portfolio. Lastly, we document that, while the risk mitigation role of gold is muted in a mean-variance setup, low volatility investing is considered just as relevant as when evaluated through a downside risk lens.

Read the full paper on SSRN

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The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

FAQs

What is the golden rule of investment? ›

Rule No. 1 – Never lose money

Let's kick it off with some timeless advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett, who said “Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1.” The Oracle of Omaha's advice stresses the importance of avoiding loss in your portfolio.

What are Warren Buffett's 5 rules of investing? ›

Here's Buffett's take on the five basic rules of investing.
  • Never lose money. ...
  • Never invest in businesses you cannot understand. ...
  • Our favorite holding period is forever. ...
  • Never invest with borrowed money. ...
  • Be fearful when others are greedy.
Jan 11, 2023

What is the 1% rule of investing? ›

Multiply the purchase price of the property plus any necessary repairs by 1% to determine a base level of monthly rent. Ideally, an investor should seek a mortgage loan with monthly payments of less than the 1% figure.

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

The 7% stop loss rule is a rule of thumb to place a stop loss order at about 7% or 8% below the buy order for any new position. If the asset price falls by more than 7%, the stop-loss order automatically executes and liquidates the traders' position.

What is the Golden Rule level of investment? ›

The Golden Rule capital stock is the level at which MPK = δ, so that the marginal product of capital equals the depreciation rate. 3. When the economy begins above the Golden Rule level of capital, reaching the Golden Rule level leads to higher consumption at all points in time.

What is the Golden Rule short answer? ›

The Golden Rule is the principle of treating others as one would want to be treated by them. It is sometimes called an ethics of reciprocity, meaning that you should reciprocate to others how you would like them to treat you (not necessarily how they actually treat you).

What is the Warren Buffett 70/30 rule? ›

A 70/30 portfolio is an investment portfolio where 70% of investment capital is allocated to stocks and 30% to fixed-income securities, primarily bonds.

What is the rule number 1 in investing? ›

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule.

What will never lose value? ›

Things that don't depreciate in value are things that don't lose their qualities as time passes or things that actually increase in value with the passage of time. These include goodwill, luxurious items, high-quality art, gems, alcoholic beverages, and land.

What is the 70% rule investing? ›

Basically, the rule says real estate investors should pay no more than 70% of a property's after-repair value (ARV) minus the cost of the repairs necessary to renovate the home. The ARV of a property is the amount a home could sell for after flippers renovate it.

What is the 80% rule investing? ›

In investing, the 80-20 rule generally holds that 20% of the holdings in a portfolio are responsible for 80% of the portfolio's growth. On the flip side, 20% of a portfolio's holdings could be responsible for 80% of its losses.

What is the 50% rule in investing? ›

The 50% rule in real estate says that investors should expect a property's operating expenses to be roughly 50% of its gross income. This is useful for estimating potential cash flow from a rental property, but it's not always foolproof.

What is the 3000 loss rule? ›

Capital losses that exceed capital gains in a year may be used to offset capital gains or as a deduction against ordinary income up to $3,000 in any one tax year. Net capital losses in excess of $3,000 can be carried forward indefinitely until the amount is exhausted.

What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.

What are the 4 am investing principles? ›

Recap of 4 AM investing principles: -Stay away if you don't have a strong mind & gut. Never cry - Problems must be fixable - Max 20% in entire 4 AM grp, 2-5% max of liquid NW in each 4 AM Stock 4 AMs aren't easy! Many go from 4 am to 1 AM before they reach 6 AM, if at all!

What does golden rule mean in finance? ›

The Golden Rule states that over the economic cycle, the Government will borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending. In layman's terms this means that on average over the ups and downs of an economic cycle the government should only borrow to pay for investment that benefits future generations.

What is the first best investment rule? ›

Rule 1: Never Lose Money

This might seem like a no-brainer because what investor sets out with the intention of losing their hard-earned cash? But, in fact, events can transpire that can cause an investor to forget this rule.

What is the 7 year rule for investing? ›

According to Standard and Poor's, the average annualized return of the S&P index, which later became the S&P 500, from 1926 to 2020 was 10%. 1 At 10%, you could double your initial investment every seven years (72 divided by 10).

What is the Golden Rule to create more wealth? ›

Spend Less and Save More

However, it is the key to your financial success. Though it is boring, only by spending less and saving will help you through your wealth management process. To create wealth, you need to have surplus funds to invest. Simply exhausting your income and not saving is not going to make you rich.

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