A contrarian stock market indicator is on the verge of flashing a 'buy' signal, Bank of America says | Business Insider India (2024)

  • Stocks are edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to BofA's contrarian market indicator.
  • The bank's Sell Side Indicator is just three percentage points away from flashing a bullish reading.

A contrarian indicator in the stock market is edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to Bank of America.

The bank's Sell Side Indicator, a contrarian stock market gauge that flashes a bullish signal when investor sentiment is bearish, and vice versa, is now closer to a "buy" signal than a "sell" signal, strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

The SSI is still in neutral territory, but the gauge slipped in April, thanks to the S&P 500's steep sell-off over the past month.

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The lower reading is a bullish sign for stocks, as the indicator is now just 3.3 percentage points away from flashing a "buy" reading, strategists said.

"The SSI has been a reliable contrarian indicator - in other words, it has been bullish when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa," the bank wrote. "The reversal in sentiment this month suggests that we are even farther from euphoria."

When stock market sentiment was this low or lower, stocks have gained over the next 12 months 94% of the time, the strategists noted.

Stagflation fears have picked up as inflation continues to run higher than expected, while first-quarter GDP came in below estimates. But Bank of America economists are still seeing a "healthy growth backdrop" for the economy. Consumer spending has held up this year, and corporate earnings look on track to post at least 7% growth for the first quarter, according to data from FactSet.

"We are constructive on equities and stick with our year-end forecast of 5400 for the S&P 500," strategists added, implying 7% upside for stocks through the end of the year.

Sentiment in the market has soured as traders fret over high interest rates, rising geopolitical risks, and the threat of stagflation. Investors are looking ahead to the Fed's next rate decision, with central bankers expected to issue guidance on the path of monetary policy Wednesday afternoon.

A contrarian stock market indicator is on the verge of flashing a 'buy' signal, Bank of America says | Business Insider India (2024)

FAQs

What is the contrarian indicator in the stock market? ›

Perhaps the most popular contrarian stock trading indicator is investor sentiment. Investor sentiment is a measure of how optimistic or pessimistic other investors are feeling. Overly bullish investor sentiment is often considered to be a bearish contrarian indicator.

What is the contrarian approach in the stock market? ›

Contrarian investing is an investment strategy that involves bucking against existing market trends to generate profits. The idea is that markets are subject to herding behavior augmented by fear and greed, making markets periodically over- and underpriced.

Which technical indicator used by contrarian investors as a bearish indicator? ›

A Contrarian Indicator

Contrarian investors use the put-call ratio to help them determine when market participants are getting overly bullish or too bearish. An extremely high put-call ratio means the market is extremely bearish.

What is the contrary opinion indicator? ›

A contrary indicator is one that tells you it may be a good time to invest in the opposite way from the herd. Here is why they may be particularly relevant now.

What is a contrarian buy signal? ›

Rather, a contrarian seeks opportunities to buy or sell specific investments when the majority of investors appear to be doing the opposite, to the point where that investment has become mispriced.

Which statement accurately describes a contrarian investment strategy in Quizlet? ›

b, The correct answer is "contrarian strategy." The objective of the contrarian investor is to purchase, at below-market prices, securities that are neglected by the majority of investors and then wait for the market to recognize their value.

What is the theory of contrarian? ›

The theory of contrary opinion, otherwise known as contrarian investing, is a psychological theory applied to trading, according to which, when most people have the same opinion about what the market is going to do, there is a high probability that it moves in the opposite direction to that expected by that mass of ...

What are contrarian market theories? ›

The contrarian approach assumes that the market often overreacts to negative news or events, causing assets to be oversold and undervalued. Contrarian investors believe that eventually, the market will recognize the true value of these assets, and the price will rise, generating significant profits for the investor.

Which indicator shows bullish or bearish? ›

Which indicator shows bullish or bearish? MACD is a versatile indicator combining two exponential moving averages (EMAs) to identify changes in the momentum during a bullish market. It can also help one identify a bearish market.

What is the best leading indicator for trading? ›

If you're able to identify the type of market you are trading in, you can pinpoint which indicators could provide helpful signals and which ones are worthless and to ignore. Popular leading indicators are the Stochastic, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Williams %R, and the Momentum indicator.

Which technical indicator is the most accurate for swing trading? ›

Bollinger Bands (BB) is a momentum indicator considered one of the best swing trading indicators. It consists of three lines: a moving average and two standard deviation lines of positive and negative.

What are contrarian indicators? ›

Contrarian indicators are a way to identify when the crowd's behavior is overly optimistic or pessimistic, and to potentially profit from it. The concept of contrarian investing is not new, and there are many different indicators that investors can use to identify when it is time to go against the crowd.

What is the contrary opinion rule? ›

Contrary opinion is the opposite opinion of the sentiment held by the majority. If eighty percent of traders are bearish then a bullish view would be a contrary opinion.

What is contrary opinion theory? ›

Stated succinctly, contrary opinion is a theory by which one attempts to analyse and comprehend popular opinion, and then act contrary to it.

Is Warren Buffett a contrarian? ›

One of the most famous investors and an aficionado of the contrarian strategy is none other than billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett.

What is the best leading indicator for the stock market? ›

Some popular leading and lagging indicators that are available for trading include:
  • Bollinger Bands.
  • Relative strength index (RSI)
  • Moving averages (simple and exponential)
  • Keltner channels.
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD)
  • Parabolic SAR.
  • Average true range (ATR)
  • Pivot points.

What is the best indicator to predict stocks? ›

Seven of the best indicators for day trading are:
  • On-balance volume (OBV)
  • Accumulation/distribution (A/D) line.
  • Average directional index.
  • Aroon oscillator.
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD)
  • Relative strength index (RSI)
  • Stochastic oscillator.

What is the Dow Jones Buffett indicator? ›

The Buffett Indicator-the ratio of the stock market's total value to GDP, which Warren Buffett (BRK. A) (BRK.B) said is "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment"-is now higher and more bearish than it was at the January 2022 market top.

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